TNF: Tennessee at Green Bay

Best Picks: Tennessee +3

Stylistically, this is a crazy matchup. Green Bay’s defense is getting thin all around, but specifically they lack against the run. Last week, Green Bay’s offense looked alive by establishing the run, and sticking with the run for over 60% of their offensive plays. Tennessee’s run offense and defense is elite. Tennessee’s passing offense and defense are both lacking.

Watch for Derrick Henry to feast tonight in Green Bay. Free Parlay: Titans ML, D. Henry over 105 rushing, D. Henry anytime TD +360 (Odds via Bet MGM).

Let’s start with Green Bay. Had this game been last week, there’s no way the Packers would be laying 3 at home. Last week, Green Bay was successful in establishing their run game. Establishing that run opened up the field for Christian Watson who had the game of his career with 107 yards on 4 catches and 3 TDs. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon looked like the tandem of old. Expect Matt LaFleur to come out with a similar game plan to try to let Aaron Rodgers play free.

The only issue with the game plan above is the fact that Tennessee’s rush defense is second best in the league. Titans are giving up 85.1 rush yards per game on average. On the road, they’re letting up an average of 60.4 rush yards per game. The Titans are a stingy bunch, as to be expected under Mike Vrabel. The Titans are built for cold. It’s going to be below freezing tonight with a chance of snow. Expect Derrick Henry to set the tone on offense for Tennessee tonight. We should be seeing a full slate of Tannehill tonight. The Henry & Tannehill tandem has proven before that together they can elevate an offense to an elite level.

Will Green Bay be able to slow Derrick Henry, and get their own running game going?