Thanksgiving Slate
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! We’re going to break down the 3 NFL games, 3 picks, what to watch out for today, and a turkey day teaser.
Best Pick: Detroit Lions +9.5
The Lions have been steamrolling their opponents in their last 3 games. Steamrolling? That would be the word, right?
Statistically, the Bills are a much better team. Situationally, the Lions have the advantage over the Bills. Good teams win, but great teams cover.
The Lions have lost their last 5 Thanksgiving Day games. The last time the Lions won on Thanksgiving was in 2016, a 16-13 win over the Minnesota Vikings. The Lions are coming in with a 3 game win streak. Meanwhile the Bills have been struggling to cover a game. Not to mention, with the thundersnow last week the Bills traveled to Detroit and back to Buffalo, going back to Detroit off a short week. The Lions fans are hungry for a win (and some turkey).
Best Pick: Under 45.5
This game has the potential to be the best game of the day. The Giants have looked abysmal throwing the football, while Saquon has been having one of the better seasons in his career. On the Cowboys side of things, Pollard and Zeke have been taking control of their offense, taking a lot of pressure off of Dak and the passing game.
The Cowboys and Giants will both be leaning heavily on their rushing attacks. The Giants come into the matchup with the 4th highest rushing YPG, and the Cowboys come in at 8th in the league. Both teams are averaging well over 100 yards per game.
As long as both defenses avoid giving up the big shots, this will be a quick game. A lot of rushes, a lot of first downs, and a lot of time killed off the clock.
Dallas has been efficient in the red zone this season scoring TDs in 65.5% of their trips to the red zone, and this is trending upwards. Meanwhile, the Giants are scoring TDs on 58.6% of their trips.
We may be close to the 45.5 today, but we will get bailed out by a 4th down goal line stand.
Best Pick: Minnesota Vikings -2.5
This is a big system play here. Expect Minnesota to come out tonight firing on all cylinders after getting embarrassed last week by the Cowboys.
The Patriots are coming in off a defensive gem against the Jets. The Pats held the Jets to a net of 12 second half yards. It was a Belichick masterminded game, and one that he’d like to coach every week. Meanwhile, the Patriots offense leaves a lot to be desired.
Bad news for the Pats… The Vikings offenses is much more potent than the Jets. The Vikings have proved they can play any style of offense the defense is giving up. Tonight, it will have to be a heavy dosage of Dalvin Cook, and some play action off of the run game. The Patriots passing defense is only giving up 188 yards per game. Wes Phillips is going to have his hands full with a stingy Patriots defense.
At the end of the day, a good team will not lose 2 straight games. Take the Vikings and hope for another Nick Folk miss as time runs out.
Turkey Day Teaser
Lions +16.5
Giants +17.5
Vikings +4.5
Odds +160 via Bet MGM
