Road to the Super Bowl 2023: SUPER Wild Card Weekend
Each week this post season, we are going to break down the matchups of the coming weekend. The games will be covered chronologically. All odds via Bet MGM Sportsbook at the time written.
7. Seahawks (9-8) @ 2. 49ers (13-4) -9.5
We’re starting out this SUPER Wild Card Weekend with an NFC West matchup. 49ers are coming into this matchup looking for their 11th straight win, and a season sweep of the Seahawks. Usually, a divisional matchup calls for a great game. The 9ers are going to stomp the Seahawks this weekend. Not only are the 9ers going for their 11th straight win, but they’re 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as compared to Seattle’s 1-7 ATS record in that same timespan. Since Brock Purdy has taken over at QB for the 9ers, he has led the NFL in passer rating, favoring George Kittle in the last 4 games. Kittle has 7 TDs in the last 4 games. This is the perfect time for the QB-TE tandem to develop some real chemistry.
On the flipside, Geno Smith has been setting Seahawks passing records this season. This season, Geno has 399 pass completions for 4,282 yards with a completion percentage of 69.8%. It only took 1 season for Geno to beat Russ’ passing records in Seattle. Also, keep an eye out for rookie CB Tariq Woolen out of UTSA. Woolen is tied for the league lead in INTs in just his first season.
5. Chargers (10-7) @ 4. Jaguars (9-8) +1
The Jags are already effectively 1-0 in playoff games after beating the Titans last week in Duval. The Jags rose to the occasion with a late 4th quarter strip sack by Rayshawn Jenkins, and Josh Allen with the scoop and score. In the last 5 games, the Jaguars have averaged 3.2 sacks per game. Speaking to the same point, the Chargers offensive line is allowing QB pressures on 35.8% of snaps which is the 9th highest in the NFL. If the Jags win this weekend, their defense will have to take over the game.
Although Jacksonville will have to lean on their defense, the Jags offense needs to hold it down on their end as well. Trever Lawrence has been on fire recently (aside from the Titans game) with 15 TDs and only 2 INTs since week 9. Lawrence won’t have to play spectacularly this weekend, but he will need to manage the game and avoid turnovers.
The Jags defense will be looking to get into a position where they can pin their ears back and get after Herbert. Austin Ekeler will be heavily utilized this weekend to help take some pressure off Herbert. Ekeler is the TD leader in the NFL this season with 18 total TDs. Mike Williams left last week’s game with a back injury thanks to the questionable decision making from Brandon Staley keeping all their starters in during a meaningless game against the Broncos. The Chargers receiving core (M. Williams, Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett) and Brandon Staley’s decision making have been underwhelming this season to say the least.
One bright spot for LAC is their defense resurging at the right time. In their last 6 games, LA has allowed 155 YPG to opposing QBs. LAC also tallied 17 sacks and 6 interceptions in the same time span. Without Derwin James or Joey Bosa.
This game could go down to the decision making from the head coaches and I’ll take Doug Pederson in that situation (over Brandon Staley) 10 times out of 10.
7. Dolphins (9-8) @ 2. Buffalo (13-3) -9.5
We start Sunday with another divisional matchup, this time coming out of the AFC East. The Bills come into this game with a 7 game winning streak, whereas the Dolphins have lost 5 of their last 6.
The past two weeks without Tua, the Dolphins didn’t look great. Skylar Thompson got the start in both games. Although it was ugly, Thompson was able to keep it close in New England, then fought for the win in week 18. The Dolphins have been able to keep their games within 10 in their last 4 straight. One of those last 4 games was against Buffalo, in Buffalo. Tua went for 234 with 2 TDs and 0 INTs. The Dolphins key to the game is to eliminate the turnovers, and limit how many times the Bills offense has the ball.
Throughout the regular season, the Bills offense ranked 2nd in total yardage, and 3rd in points scored. In their last 8, the Bills haven’t scored less than 20 points. Watch for Devin Singletary and Josh Allen to get the ground game going. Averaging 5.2 yards per rush, why not run the ball?
On the other side of the ball, the Bills defense has been on fire. They’ve only been giving up 17.9 points per game ranking second in the NFL. The Dolphins have trouble converting on 3rd downs, the Bills will be looking to take advantage of that.
6. Giants (9-7-1) @ 3. Vikings (13-4) -3
Let me put on my UFC hat really quick… Stylistically, this matchup may be the best match up of the weekend. These teams are complete opposites of each other; Minnesota gets it done offensively, and NY gets majority of their work done on the defensive end.
Offensively, the Vikings have been a juggernaut this season. Ranking 2nd in passing yards with 4,818 and Dalvin Cook eclipsing the 1,000 yard mark on the ground. When you get to the playoffs, you have to expect your best players to play to their fullest potential. Justin Jefferson may be the best WR in the NFL. The Vikings average the 6th most passing yards per game with 263.8. All of Minnesota is going to be on the edge of their seats waiting to see if Kirk is for real or fugazi. The Vikings have had their fair share of adversity this season with 11 of their 13 wins coming by 1 score. One of those games happen to have been against the Giants where Greg Joseph walked it off with a 61 yard field goal.
Isiah Hodgins, Richie James, and Marcus Johnson. Yeah, I don’t know who they are either. Somehow, the Giants have been able to do enough to sneak their way into the playoffs with Daniel Jones throwing to a seemingly B team of wide receivers. Ask any Giants fan, all you need to do is get in it to win it. The Giants have done majority of their damage through the ground game where the Vikings defense has been vulnerable. Saquon racked up 1,312 on the ground this season 84 of which came against Minnesota where Saquon ended the game with 133 total yards and 1 TD. Similar to my Vikings point, get your best player the ball. If the Giants offensive line can get some movement up front, Saquon has the ability to take over the game.
Daboll has been a part of big games before. I trust that he will rally his team together to get a wildcard round win.
6. Ravens (10-7) @ 3. Bengals (12-4) -8.5
We’re closing out Sunday night with another divisional matchup, this time coming out of the AFC North.
The Bengals defense has been on a tear to close out the regular season. The Bengals have held their opponents to less than 21 points in 6 of their last 8 games. Vonn Bell & Jessie Bates are leading the Bengals defense with 4 INTs each. Low key, the Bengals defense has played a major role in their 8 game winning streak. Last week, the Bengals routed the Ravens (4 total turnovers generated by the Bengals), but the Ravens were sitting key players.
The Bengals have a major opportunity in the pass game this weekend with the Ravens letting up major yards through the air. This plays right into the Bengals strengths. Don’t be shocked like we were last season when the Bengals are back in the Super Bowl.
Without Lamar, the Ravens are not looking great. Lamar hasn’t played since Week 13 and is still the team’s leading passer (2,242 yards passing and 764 yards rushing). Jackson is still on the cusp, not sure if he will be playing this game. Lamar wasn’t seen on the practice field this past Wednesday. In order for Lamar to play this weekend, he will have to be on the practice field at least once by Friday.
5. Cowboys (12-5) @ 4. Buccaneers (8-9) +2.5
Monday night, we have an extremely anticipated matchup with Tom Brady who has never lost to the Cowboys vs. a Cowboys team who is looking to quiet their critics.
Tom Brady is 7-0 in his career against the Cowboys. If the Cowboys are going to beat Brady, this is the season to do so. While the Bucs are NFC South champions, the NFC South was brutal this season. Speaking to the same point, nobody wants to face off against Brady & Mike Evans in the playoffs. Especially when the Buc’s defense is starting to catch their stride. Led by Devin White, the Bucs defense has been their bright spot all season. You can never count out a defense made up of Vita Vea, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Antoine Winfield, Lavonte David & Devin White. The saying goes “defense wins championships.”
The Cowboys offense has been one of the best offenses they’ve put together in recent history. Ceedee Lamb has tallied 1,359 receiving yards during the regular season. Pollard and Zeke amassed 1,883 yards on the ground this season, with Pollard having over 1,000 rushing yards (the first time Pollard has rushed for over 1k yards in his career). Similar to the Buc’s defense, the Cowboys defense has been legit all throughout the season. On average, the Cowboys are holding opposing offenses to 20.1 points per game which is 5th best in the NFL. Dak Prescott is tied in the league lead with 15 INTs this season. Being reckless with the ball against a rabid Buc’s defense is a recipe for disaster. If the Cowboys can take care of the football and step up their game, they might finally be able to defeat Brady.
Bet Slip for SUPER Wildcard Weekend:
49ers -9.5 & George Kittle anytime TD (+280)
Devin Singletary over 43.5 rushing (-115)
Giants +3 (-110)
Bengals -8.5 (-110)
Joe Burrow over 268.5 passing (-110)
Bengals -8.5 & Burrow 2+ Passing TDs & Burrow over 279.5 passing yards (+340)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 (-105)
