Road to the Super Bowl 2023: Divisional Round
Welcome to the Divisional Round! We have some awesome matchups this weekend. An NFC East matchup, a classic NFC matchup in the Cowboys 49ers, Doug Pederson against Andy Reid, and the bad blooded Bengals against the Bills.
We are breaking down the games chronologically. Bet slip at the end of the breakdowns. As always, the odds are given via Bet MGM.
5. Jaguars @ 1. Chiefs -9.5
We start out the Divisional Round with a matchup of former player and assistant in Doug Pederson against former head coach Andy Reid.
The Chiefs come into this game 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. The Jags are 7-3 ATS in their last 10, and 6-0 straight up. When digging into the Chiefs last 6 over/under, I found a quirky pattern. In their last 6 games, the total was set over 50 3 times, and under 50 3 times. Every time the over was set at 50+, the under hit. Every time the under was set under 50, the over hit.
Chiefs are statistically the best offense in the NFL in many categories. The Mahomes & Kelce duo consistently delivers. Since 2018, only Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill have more receiving yards than Kelce. This season, Kelce accumulated 110 catches for 1338 yards 12 touchdowns. In a season that had a lot of question marks around the Chiefs offense, Kelce has been extremely dependable. Taking some pressure off KC’s WR core and giving them time to get acclimated.
Defensively, Chris Jones has been just as consistent as Mahomes has been. He’s tied for 4th in the NFL with 15.5 sacks this season. For some reason, it always seems that he shows up in crunch time. It seems that Frank Clark will be getting the green light to play this week, which will only make Chris Jones’ job that much easier.
Doug Pederson has this Jags team ready to rock. We saw last week that the Jags are feisty, and they can never be counted out of the game. Although if the Jags go down 27-0 in the first half, don’t expect the Chiefs to let up on the gas. The Jags defense is going to have to play great for all 60 minutes of the game. The defense is going to have to capitalize on the opportunities that the Chiefs defense present them, which will be few and far between.
The Jags play the rush very well. Last week they held Ekeler to 35 rushing yards, 0 rushing yards in the second half. Although Ekeler found the end zone twice, he wasn’t very effective in moving the ball. The Chiefs offense is very dynamic. If the Jags can shut down the Chiefs rushing offense, the Chiefs should find a lot of success through the air. Fun stat I found while looking into this game, the Jags are the best in the NFL at stopping opposing offenses on 4th down. Pederson has this team believing in themselves and fighting for each other
6. Giants @ 1. Eagles -7.5
Next up, we have an NFC East matchup. You probably have seen people saying that it’s difficult to beat the same team 3 times in the same season. Those people couldn’t be more wrong. Since 1970, there has been 24 instances where teams met 3 times in the same season. The team going for the sweep is 15-9 in those 24 matchups. This includes last week’s Seahawks at 49ers game. The 9ers completed the sweep of the Seahawks. With that being said, the Giants come into this matchup 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. One of those 2 ATS losses came against the Eagles in Week 14.
The Eagles clinched a playoff birth in Week 14 against the Giants. Then, the Eagles clinched the 1 seed in Week 18 against the Giants. This week, the Eagles can punch their ticket to the NFC Championship game against the Giants.
The Eagles are an extremely well-rounded team. They can attack from many different angles on both offense and defense. The Eagles are averaging more rush TDs than any other team in the NFL, and top 5 in rushing yards per game. Through the air, the Eagles are top 10 in passing yards per game, and INTs thrown per game. These stats tell me that the Eagles can strike through the ground game, through the air, while not turning the ball over. The Giants rush defense is in the bottom tier of the NFL. I fully expect the Eagles to try to control the game through the ground game. We should see a heavy dosage of Miles Sanders, and the “Giant Killer” Boston Scott.
The Giants are coming into this matchup top of the NFL in rushing. Saquon and Daniel Jones are very talented, and the Giants offense truly runs through these two on the ground. The Giants passing game is coming together as of late, but the Eagles pass defense is #1 in the NFL. I’m expecting to see a lot of Saquon, and Daniel Jones using his legs creatively. The Giants will need to be more dynamic than just utilizing Saquon and Jones. Daniel Jones passing the ball against the ball hawk Eagles defense could cause a disaster for the Giants. If the Giants win this game, they will end the game on the positive side in the turnover column and rack up a ton of rushing yards.
3. Bengals @ 2. Bills -6
Sunday kicks off with a rematch of a couple AFC juggernauts. The Bengals come into this matchup with a chip on their shoulder. If the Bengals had beat the Bills, this game would be in the jungle. We saw the coinflip celebration by Joe Mixon in the regular season finale against the Ravens. A ticked off Joe Burrow is something no defense wants a part of.
Bengals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, currently 12-5 ATS, and 7-2 on the road. Both the Bengals and Bills are streaking on overs in the past few weeks. Bengals last 2 overs have hit; Bills have hit in their last 4. This game has points written all over it.
Josh Allen’s ball protection will be a big part of this game. We saw last week the Dolphins score a field goal and touchdown off a couple of Allen interceptions.
Bengals defense in the past 3 weeks have given up 18 points, 16 points, and 17 points. Bengals offense is scoring TDs on 66% of trips to the red zone. If the Bengals win this weekend, the defense will have to take the ball away from the Bills and capitalize on those opportunities. Offensively, they will need to control the ball and the time of possession.
The Bills defense was put on the ropes against the Dolphins in the Wild Card game. The Bills offense will provide opportunity for the Bengals defense. Josh Allen has been careless with the ball this season 14 INTs thrown. Last week, we saw him get picked off twice. First INT led to a field goal, second led to a touchdown. These points are going to be crucial.
5. Cowboys at 2. 49ers -4
We close out the Divisional Round with a classic NFC matchup. The Cowboys are coming in hot off a big win against Brady and the Bucs last week. The 9ers continued their route of anybody in their way. The 9ers are the hottest team in the NFL, and they’re peaking at the right time.
We should see the Cowboys trying to get the running game going early in the game to keep the ball away from the 9ers. Not only to play keep away from the 9ers dynamic offense, but to also limit the amount of times Dak may throw a pick. Dak is a league leader in INTs thrown, and has missed 5 games throughout the regular season. Even with Maher’s kicking issues, I expect the Cowboys to take points as they come early. Later in the game, watch for Dak’s reliable safety valve Dalton Schultz for some major 3rd down, 4th down conversions. The 9ers pass defense is good. Ceedee will get his, but he should be limited in the passing game along with the rest of the Cowboy’s receiving core.
The defensive line will need to get to Purdy and get to him quickly. When the pocket collapses, Purdy likes to bail out through the back door as opposed to climbing the pocket like we see in veteran QBs. Dallas’ defensive line is much more athletic than the Seahawk’s line is. It won’t be so easy for Purdy to bail out the back and reset his feet.
The 49ers have been absolutely steamrolling opponents lately. The Seahawks put up a great fight, but the 9ers have so many weapons they’re nearly impossible to keep down for 60 minutes. One thing that caught my eye while watching the Wild Card game was the Seahawks ability to expose Purdy. The hawks were able to move Purdy out of the pocket and force quick decision making. The 49ers have so many options that even shutting down Purdy won’t completely take them out of the game. Aiyuk seems to be Purdy’s go to guy down the field, and he is always wide open. If the pass isn’t working, Shanahan’s rushing offense should have no problem getting going. Between McCaffrey, Deebo, and even Aiyuk, you just never know where the offense will strike from.
The 9ers defense is top notch from all facets. From the front 7 to the back 4 the 9ers have extremely talented players. The biggest mismatch in this game is the 9ers defensive line against the Cowboys offensive line. We may see the Cowboys get creative adding an extra lineman coming out of the backfield, but the 9ers front 7 is much more talented than the Buccaneer’s front 7.
Bet Slip:
Jags +9.5 (-110)
Chiefs Jags under 53 (-115)
Eagles -7.5 (-110)
Bengals +6 (-110)
Boston Scott Anytime TD (+350)
49ers -4 (-110)
