TNF: AFC East Matchup Bills @ Patriots
Best Pick: New England Patriots +3.5
The line opened up at Pats +5.5. With a pretty significant drop from +5.5 down to +3.5, we can tell that there is significant money coming in on the Pats. The Bills have traveled for the past 3 games. The Bills last home game, they lost in a thriller to Minnesota. Then, Goodell took our Snowbowl away forcing the Bills to play in Detroit. Bills went back to Buffalo, then back to Detroit for the Thanksgiving game. Back to Buffalo and now over to New England. All with no extra time off. While they’re professionals, used to traveling, eventually this has to take a toll on a team.
Diggs and the Bills are looking to continue their win streak tonight against the Patriots.
I want to start this out by challenging you all to a test. One of these teams is the Bills, and the other is the Patriots. Look at the records ATS and tell me which team is which.
Team 1: 5-5-1 ATS, 0-2 ATS vs. divisional opponents, 4-2-1 ATS against conference opponents, 1-4 ATS in their last 5, 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10, 2-2 ATS at home, 3-3 ATS away.
Team 2: 6-4-1 ATS, 2-1 ATS vs. divisional opponents, 4-2-1 ATS against conference opponents, 3-2 ATS in their last 5, 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10, 3-2 ATS at home, 3-2-1 ATS away.
Team1 is the juggernaut Buffalo Bills, and Team 2 is the lousy NE Patriots.
The Big Bad Bills have been on a major losing streak in their last 10 games, most specifically in their last 5. The Patriots are not an easy team to get right against. We’ve seen it before, Belichick having the Bills number, even if the Bills are the better team.
The Bills offense is going to have their hands full with this Patriot’s defense. New England is giving up an average of just over 300 yards per game which is the 4th best in the NFL, and 194 yards per game in their last 3. New England also has the 2nd highest sack percentage in the league at 3.4 sacks/ game and 4.7 in their last 3.
Buffalo’s passing offense has been great this season. They come into the matchup with the 3rd most yards per game in the air. Their last game against Detroit, that number was down a bit (237 yards), but the ground game took most of the work.
The glaring weakness of Buffalo is in the fact that in order to win games, Josh Allen has to be superman. The entire team relies on Josh to get them down the field. As a sports watcher, it is obvious that Allen is asked to do everything and then some. He has rightfully earned that role throughout his career. Expect Belichick to do everything he can to eliminate Allen from the game. We’ve seen it time and time again that Belichick finds ways to take the strength of the opponent, and completely 0 it out. The game is going to come down to the Bills rushing offense, and whether or not Singletary and Allen can make magic on the ground.
