Road to the Super Bowl 2023: The Super Bowl

We’re finally here.  1 seed vs. 1 seed. Chiefs vs Eagles.  So many storylines coming out of this matchup.  This may be the game that skyrockets the winning franchise for the next few seasons.  The league is up for grabs.  Both the Chiefs and Eagles have won a Super Bowl in the last 5 seasons.  2 Super Bowl wins in under 10 seasons is great start to a dynasty.

Shout out to BetMGM for the odds.

Chiefs vs Eagles -1.5

As with many other Super Bowls, the lines Vegas gives us are very blah.  50.5 on the over/under and the Eagles are favorited by 1.5 points.  The Chiefs did open as slight favorites, but the line moved over to the Eagles and has stayed stagnant since.  The Chiefs enter this game 1-1 ATS through the playoffs, while the Eagles enter this game 2-0 ATS in this postseason.

Chiefs Breakdown

Let’s start with the Chiefs.  Mahomes isn’t an underdog very often.  When he is an underdog, he smashes the competition.  7-1-1 ATS as a dog, and 6-3 straight up.  Mahomes has led the #1 offense in the league in many categories this season; points per game, yards per game, pass yards per game, yards per pass.  While also ranking #2 in the NFL in 3rd down conversions, 4th down conversions, Red Zone scoring (TDs only), and TDs per game.   All this coming fresh off losing Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins.  Mahomes has this offense firing on all cylinders, and they have been all season long.

Kansas City’s rush defense is very sound. They’re top 10 in many categories on the ground.  Chris Jones finally got not 1, but 2 of the elusive postseason sacks last week against the Bengals.  He has 3 tackles for loss so far this postseason, and he is a major reason why the Chief’s rushing defense tops the league.  In addition to Jones, Frank Clark loves to wreak havoc in opposing backfields.  This postseason, Clark has 2.5 sacks, and 3 tackles for loss.  The Chiefs will be relying heavily on these two to help stop the run and get some pressure on Jalen Hurts.

The Chiefs passing defense leaves a lot to be desired.   The Chiefs defense is giving up an average of over 220 yards per game through the air. They gave up 217 yards through the air to Trevor Lawrence, and 270 to Joe Burrow.  It’s no secret that the Eagles offense thrives on establishing a ground game.  If the Eagles establish a good run, and allow over 215 yards in the air, it could be a long night for Kansas City. The Chiefs defense has gotten at least one pick in each of their 2 playoff games.  This game could come down to who has the most possessions, it is key for the Chiefs to force the Eagles offense to make mistakes.

Chiefs Injury report: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is coming off of the IR. Mecole Hardman is on the IR.  There is a lot of speculation around L’Jarius Sneed (concussion), JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee), and Kadarius Toney (ankle/hamstring).  CEH coming off IR is such a typical Andy Reid move.  I expect CEH to have a decently sized role in this game.

Eagles Breakdown

This is the first time ever that the Eagles are favorited in a Super Bowl matchup.  Although the Chiefs opened as a favorite, the line quickly moved towards the Eagles and hasn’t budged since.  How could Vegas make the Eagles an underdog in this spot?  The Eagles have outscored their opponents 69-14 through the playoffs.

The Eagles rushing offense has been incredible throughout this post season.  4 rushing touchdowns against the big bad 49ers defense, and 3 rushing touchdowns against the NY Giants.  The rush game has accounted for 7 of the Eagles 9 post season touchdowns.  The offensive line needs deserves a ton of credit for the rushing attack being so successful. All 5 of the starting linemen are extremely talented. Pro Football Focus has all 5 of the starters within the top 7 in their respective position groups.  Jordan Mialata is ranked as the 5th best tackle, Lane Johnson is ranked 2nd best.  Landon Dickerson is ranked as the 6th best guard, Isaac Seumalo is ranked as the 7th.  Jason Kelce is ranked as the 2nd best center in the NFL only behind the Chief’s Creed Humphrey.  In one word, dominance.  With 268 rushing yards against the Giants, and 148 rushing yards against the 49ers, this Eagles run game is a lot for the Chiefs defense to deal with.

Defensively, the Eagles have the ability to completely suffocate the opposing offense.  Just look at how many points the Giants & 49ers put up against the Eagles this post season.  The Eagles are giving up 171 yards per game through the air, while playing from ahead in the majority of their games.  The Eagles defensive front is getting to the quarterback at a historical rate.  They’re #1 in sacks in the NFL, 3rd most sacks of any team in NFL history. Not to mention they recorded 8 sacks in the two playoff games they’ve played.

The Eagles defense is middle of the pack in rushing yards per game giving up an average of 119 yards per game and giving up 4.6 yards per rush.  While the Eagles have tightened up in the playoffs, the Chiefs have an opportunity to strike on the ground.  With Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce being their premier players, will Andy Reid shift and try to press the run game?

Eagles Injury Report: Cam Jurgens, and Lane Johnson are all listed as questionable at this point.  Airyn Siposs came off the IR on February 2nd, he is on the fence for this game.  Avonte Maddox is also iffy for this game and is currently listed as questionable.  This would be a huge addition to the Eagles defense.

Consensus

My final thoughts on this game can be put in one phrase; defense wins championships. Think back to the 2007 New England Patriots. Undefeated throughout the regular season, NFL’s leader in a ton of offensive categories, just to get stunned by a dominant New York Giants defense in Super Bowl 42.

The Eagles have a better defense than the Chiefs. The Eagles are also better in certain positions on offense. With Siposs back, the special teams is fairly even. Don’t overthink it. The Chiefs offense is incredible, Mahomes is extremely talented, the Mahomes x Kelce synergy is unlike any other. The formula to shut down a generational QB, and one of the best TEs to ever play the game? A shut down, suffocating defense, and a rush heavy offense.

Bet Slip

Eagles Money line (-125)

Jalen Hurts MVP (+140)

Take a Flyer On: Hasson Reddick MVP (+3000)