College Football Championship Weekend
Championship weekend is here! The weekend where dreams turn into realities or dreams die. These games are for all the marbles. Win or go home (unless you’re UGA I guess…) Our writers and handicappers break down the matchups, what to look out for, and some stone cold locks!
Conference USA Championship: North Texas Mean Green @ UTSA Roadrunners
Best Picks: North Texas +8.5, Over 69
A few weeks back, North Texas traveled to UTSA and lost by 4 points. Keep in mind how difficult it is to beat the same team twice in one season (We’re looking at you too, Utah). Since the loss, North Texas’ only other loss came against UAB. UTSA has been riding a 9 game win streak, 6 of which covered over 8.5 points. North Texas has lost a game by more than 9 points only 3 times this season.
Both team’s successes can be attributed to their red zone efficiencies. North Texas is scoring on 86% of their red zone trips, whereas UTSA is scoring on 90.75% of their trips. On the opposite side of the ball, UNT’s defense is allowing opponents to score on 83.3% of their red zone trips, and UTSA’s defense is allowing opponents to score on 78.38% of their trips to the red zone.
Offensively, both teams are averaging over 6 yards per play. Conversely on the defense, they’re allowing just under 6 yards per play. This matchup is set to be explosive. Both offenses will have their way with the opposing defenses.
In a game where both teams have high red zone efficiencies, and their defense is allowing a lot of scoring it’s easy to take 8.5 points. That additional 0.5 points is huge, and tells me this will come down to UNT scoring at the end of the game to get within 8 points then attempting to recover an onside kick. When Vegas sees a shoot out and they’re giving you a 2 score margin, you take it every time.
PAC 12 Championship: Utah @ USC
Best Picks: USC -2.5
USC has been on fire lately. USC is 3-0 in their last 3 ATS, and 5-0 in their last 5 straight up. USC hasn’t lost a game since… Utah.
Offensively USC comes into the game top 5 in points per game, yards per game, points per play, yards per play, and 3rd down conversions. USC is the best team in the country in turnover margin with 0.3 giveaways a game, and 2.2 takeaways per game (a turnover margin of 1.8). In their last matchup, USC won the turnover battle by recovering a fumble by Micah Bernard.
Caleb Williams has been getting a ton of hype this season. He is leading the top offense in the country and is being extremely stingy with the ball throwing only 4 interceptions this entire season. When Williams last matched up against the Utes, he torched them for 381 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs. 145 of those yards went to Williams (Mario) on 4 catches. Since their regular season matchup, C. Williams hasn’t scored less than 3 TDs in each of the 5 games played whether it be through the air or on the ground. This guy should have the Heisman locked up. Another 5+ TD performance will solidify him as only the 6th sophomore to win the Heisman. If C. Williams is responsible for another 5+ TDs and gets some help on the ground; the Trojans should be PAC 12 champs, and will punch their ticket to the CFB Playoffs.
The last time these two teams met, Cam Rising played out of his mind throwing for 415 and 2 TDs and running for 60 yards and 3 TDs. Rising hasn’t been able to duplicate that production since. The last ranked matchup the Utes had came against Oregon where Rising went for 170 yards 0 TDs 3 INTs.
Is USC on upset alert tonight? Absolutely. Can Utah pull out another win against USC? Sure, they proved they can beat USC. It’s difficult to go against the Heisman front runner in a game that could solidify him as the Heisman winner. It’s also difficult to go against a winning coach such as Lincoln Riley. We’ve seen with his Oklahoma teams that he can get the teams rocking. They will be partying in So Cal tonight.
Big 12 Championship: Kansas State @ TCU
Best Picks: TCU -2, Over 61.5
TCU comes into this game the healthiest they’ve been since the beginning of the season. A healthy Quentin Johnston will make a huge difference in this game. K State also comes into the matchup with a healthy Adrian Martinez. Both teams should be at full strength, and ready to go to battle. I expect to see a heavy dosage of Quentin Johnston for TCU, and a Will Howard start for KSU. If things get hairy for KSU, Adrian Martinez should get some playing time.
TCU has a lot to play for today. This could be TCU’s first Big 12 Championship, TCU controls their destiny with a win today, and if Max Duggan plays out of his mind he has a very real chance at winning the Heisman trophy. Especially with a tough game by Caleb Williams. TCU has gotten up for all their games this season, this game should be the same.
This may be the biggest game of these student athlete’s lives. Both teams will get up for this game. It should be a classic.
The trends are all pointing towards a TCU cover. TUC is 8-2-1 ATS after a win, and 7-2-1 as a favorite. KSU comes into this matchup 2-2 ATS as a dog. The last 3 Big 12 Championship games have ended within 1 score. This game should be no different.
SEC Championship: LSU @ Georgia
Best Pick: Georgia -17.5
Since 2013, only 2 SEC Championship matchups have been decided by one score or less. Early December is when UGA wakes up. LSU lost their playoff hopes when losing to Texas A&M last week. Did that take all the air out of LSU, or will they be playing loose with no expectations?
The most notable injury to look at in this game is the sprained ankle of Jayden Daniels. We saw last night how a hobbled quarterback can make an offense one dimensional. If LSU wins this game, they will need Jayden Daniels to make some big plays with his feet. UGA is only allowing 12.4 points per game to opponents which is best in the country. If they’re able to take away the run game of LSU, it will be very difficult for LSU to keep up.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again; UGA is the best overall team in the country. Offensively, defensively, special teams, no one is better than UGA. UGA is the best in the country at stopping teams from scoring in the red zone, while also being best in the country at scoring in the red zone. Kirby Smart has been here before, winning the SEC in 2017. He’s looking to win again, this time against Brian Kelly in his first year in the SEC. Don’t be surprised if Georgia gives Kelly & Daniels a warm welcome to the SEC.
