College Football Playoff Round 1

2024 CFB Official Bracket

The expanded CFB Playoff starts this week, and man I can not wait! This weekend is the perfect weekend for having multiple TVs… so much football. This new playoff format is absolutely incredible offering so many different ways results may shake out. What a time it’s been for college football. The transfer portal made for a more efficient transfer process. NIL is giving the smaller schools a higher appeal to the students by offering better incentives. And the new playoff format is giving more programs a chance. These new pieces of the college football puzzle are coming together with such beautiful synergy, the vibes have NEVER been higher.

Let’s preview the playoff games.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish enter the first round as 7.5 point favorites against the Cinderella Indiana Hoosiers this weekend at Notre Dame Stadium. In this matchup, I’ve got to give the nod to Notre Dame. Notre Dame’s defense may be too much for the Hoosiers to manage. The clearest game on the Hoosier’s schedule we can point to is the Ohio State game where OSU’s defense held Rourke to 68 yards passing (a season low by far), and 85 total rushing yards.

If Indiana wins this game, it’ll be through time of possession, getting into 3rd and short situations, and converting in those situations. The Hoosiers should try to establish a rushing game early. Indiana’s rushing game will determine how the game goes. As I mentioned earlier, I’d give the Irish the nod in this game straight up. If the Hoosiers can establish that run game early, and keep it running often, watch for them to cover the 7.5 points, and possibly even keep their Cinderella season alive. I just wrote my way into betting Indiana money line, the +230 is too juicy not to squeeze.

State Penn comes into the first round as 8.5 point favorites over the Ponies in Beaver Stadium. If SMU wants to move onto the next round, they’re going to have to defeat this stingy State Penn defense through the air. At this point in the season, teams have established their identities and know their strengths and weaknesses. SMU’s strength is through the air, so this is the type of game they want to play. Key for SMU is to not turn the ball over. SMU is giving away the ball just shy of 2 times per game on average. If the Ponies are backed up against the wall and are forced to air the ball out more than they want to, the Nittany Lions may feast on their opportunities. This is a prove it game for SMU.

On the flip side, State Penn is coming off of a tough loss in the Big 10 Championship against Oregon where they played a solid game all round, but the Ducks seemed to be too much. But remember, this playoff was made for teams like State Penn in mind. They absolutely feast on the lower teams. I don’t see a way that Penn State loses this game. Seems like the public is confident SMU will be able to keep it close which I can get behind, but if Abdul Carter pins his ears back, it could be a long day for SMU. I think Carter does exactly that, the secondary will generate some turnovers, and the Nittany Lions roll into the second round.

No bias, but as a Sooners fan, I can’t WAIT for the Longhorns to get knocked out of the playoff. No bias. The only thing that would make Texas losing better would be seeing them lose at Texas Memorial Stadium. Again, I have no bias. I absolutely have to take Clemson with the points in this matchup. When is the last time Clemson was catching double digit points under Dabo? I’ll tell you, it was week 1 Clemson vs UGA, and UGA wiped the floor with Clemson. Okay, so maybe my thought process at that time wasn’t great, but UGA is the top dawg and has been all season. They’ve also proved they’re in a weight class above Texas this season. Don’t doubt Dabo in a big game. I’m not sure if this is the squarest take of my life, or I’m absolutely locked in. Does Sark have what it takes to win a big game? Is UGA Sark’s kryptonite? Let’s look at all the underdogs this round: Indiana (Cignetti), SMU (Lashlee), Clemson (Dabo), and Tennessee (Heupel). Out of the four head coaches, only one will get an upset win. Whose name would be least shocking? To me, a Dabo upset would be the least shocking. There’s no doubt that he’ll have his guys ready to rock, but do they have the juice to compete with Texas’ talent? Again… No bias.

Ohio State opens up their playoff run as 7.5 point favorites over the Vols at The Horseshoe. I have a strong feeling that the Tennessee Volunteers will be getting OSU’s best after their upset. For whatever reason, Ryan Day becomes a mental midget when facing Michigan. I have to imagine Day has been in the lab with Chip Kelly non stop for the past two weeks. If I’m Day, I wouldn’t be able to sleep. I’d be absolutely obsessed with dominating not only this week, but the entire playoff. If OSU loses to Michigan then falls short in the playoff, Day’s days on OSU’s sidelines may be over. With that being said, all of my money will be on OSU in this matchup. OSU will cover the 7.5 handedly. They’ll push the ball through the air, and overwhelm the Vols offense, placating to their strengths. I’m backing Day here, and football is a week to week sport.

It’s nice to see the Vols making the playoffs in the first season of the expansion, but they got a tough draw going up against OSU first round. Vols will need to control the time of possession in this one if they’re going to win this game. They’ll have to lean on their running game, and the defensive line will have to step up big. The Vols defense has the talent up front to come up big in passing situations. The Vols offense will have to be led by Dylan Sampson. I’m talking under center running the ball. Show run, and run it successfully. The Vols will have to make sure the game doesn’t get away from them.

Bets

Favorite: PSU -8.5

Dog: Clemson +11.5

Free Bet: Indiana Moneyline +230